Work in Progress
Work in Progress
Courts, Costs, and Crises: The Role of Default Penalties for Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises
Runner-up of the Cambridge Finance Best Student Paper award 2024
Draft available here
Abstract. This paper studies the causal effect of rising default costs on market expectations for sovereign default. I use a novel identification strategy that leverages the prevalent issuance of foreign currency debt under U.S. law. I exploit changes in Latin American countries' litigation-induced default costs and default probabilities around legal rulings on creditor lawsuits against Argentina in U.S. courts. I find that positive news about recovery rates under U.S. law — interpreted as increases in litigation-induced default costs — lead to a reduction in expectations of future default. I develop these results in a model of international borrowing with endogenous default and heterogeneous lenders, who vary in their ability to impose economic costs on sovereigns. I similarly find that adopting more punitive debt portfolios reduces vulnerability to belief-driven debt crises, but can increase the severity of fundamental crises.
The Investment Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from a Corporate Bond Purchase Surprise
With M. Momm
Revisiting Optimal Debt Management under a Call-Option in Incomplete Markets
With M. Ellison, E. Faraglia and F. Velde
Policy Papers
Abstract. This paper proposes a novel application of the synthetic control methodology to benchmark sustainable debt trajectories in low-income countries (LICs) using historically similar market access countries (MACs). In a first step, we empirically identify country-specific characteristics that have historically been associated with LICs’ debt carrying capacity. We then use these features as predictors in the synthetic control method design to construct a “most alike” synthetic control unit from historic MAC debt trajectories not resulting in debt stress events. This allows us to better pinpoint an estimated guidepost for medium- to long-term debt sustainability in LICs. Backtesting this approach for all LICs starting in 2015 shows that a deviation from the proposed sustainable benchmark is associated with a significantly higher risk of facing external debt distress in subsequent years.
Abstract. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the most universal health and socio-economic crisis in recent history. However, the magnitude of the economic damage has differed widely; some countries were hit particularly hard, while others have managed to weather the storm much better. In this paper, we use cross-country regression analysis to identify factors that help explain the differences in the growth impact of the COVID-19 shock. Our findings underscore the critical role of balancing health and economic concerns in managing the pandemic as both a country’s exposure to the coronavirus and the stringency of containment measures are strongly correlated with its growth performance. In addition, our results shed light on several aspects of economic resilience. Good governance, provision of fiscal support and strong macroeconomic fundamentals all helped cushion the economic impact. By contrast, a lack of economic diversification – reflected in overreliance on the tourism sector or oil production – has significantly amplified the shock.
UN DESA Policy Paper